Biased Party Nominations as a Source of Women's Electoral Underperformance

What accounts for candidate gender differences in electoral success? We argue that parties systematically nominate women to run in districts where the party is less popular, making it harder for them to get elected. Our empirical strategy uses the German mixed electoral system to create counterfactual vote share differences that would occur if women and men were nominated in districts where their parties have equal popularity. Using data on all candidates for the German Bundestag across eleven elections, we document that women's underperformance, and its variation across parties and election years, is almost entirely explained by women running in less popular districts. In contrast, we find no evidence that voter bias or candidate characteristics play a substantial role. Our argument highlights gendered party gatekeeping by local officials, which increases in district strength, as a key driver of underrepresentation.