High-Resolution Mapping of the Nordic Plastic Cycle Suggests Capacity Expansion for Both Mechanical and Chemical Recycling

Nordic countries are widely recognized for their leadership in sustainability initiatives and have implemented numerous projects to improve plastic waste recycling and utilization. However, the plastic consumption and waste management in these countries remain insufficiently understood due to the lack of dynamic, high-resolution plastic cycle maps that span the entire lifecycle. Here, we devised a polymer-level dynamic material flow analysis model by integrating data from disparate sources to simulate the historical cycle of 14 groups of polymers (1978-2020) and their recycling potentials by 2050 in five Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, and Iceland). The results show that the average per capita stock in Nordic countries in 2020 reached the saturation level (1100 kg per capita), which is the highest global value. Imported polymers far exceeded the domestic production. Most of the plastic waste was incinerated or landfilled, with the average recycling rate falling below 6%. Enhanced mechanical recycling could contribute to 27% of the regional demand, requiring 6.7 times the expansion of the current recycling capacity by 2050. The additional implementation of chemical recycling could potentially provide 22% of the regional demand, but the potential contribution of chemical recycling is compromised by the lack of industrial production in the region, implying the need for international collaborations. The results contribute to addressing key issues under discussion in the ongoing negotiations of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for the Global Plastic Treaty.