The Experience Paradox: Problematizing a Common Digital Trace Proxy on Crowdfunding Platforms

Information Systems (ISs) research frequently relies on digital trace data, often using simple activity counts as proxies for complex latent constructs like ‘experience’. However, the validity of such proxies is often assumed rather than critically scrutinized. This study problematizes this practice by treating a common proxy—a creator’s prior project count on Kickstarter—not as a measure of experience, but as a focal signal whose meaning is inherently ambiguous and context-dependent. By analyzing large-scale data (N ≈ 16,407 projects), we uncover a nuanced ‘experience paradox.’ The proxy exhibits a significant inverted-U association with backer mobilization and non-linearly moderates the value of other positive signals. Strikingly, it also maintains a persistent negative direct association with total funding, with its meaning varying significantly across project categories. These findings reveal the profound ambiguity of seemingly objective digital traces. Our primary contribution is methodological and theoretical: we provide a robust empirical critique of naive proxy use and refine signaling theory for digital contexts by integrating it with cognitive limitations and contextual factors. We urge IS scholars to develop more sophisticated measurement models and offer specific, evidence-based cautions for platform managers against the simplistic use of activity metrics in the digital economy.