Decisions Under Radical Uncertainty: The Role of Volitional Liminality in Radical Innovation

ABSTRACT Academic Summary Radical innovation management can be understood as an organizational practice that enacts distant futures, which are open‐ended and unknowable. Such radical innovation endeavors are thus characterized by radical uncertainty , where possible futures are not only quantitatively but qualitatively different from the present, and probabilities are not available to decision‐makers. As a result, firms might (need to) pursue innovation initiatives that engender incongruent visions of the future. Yet, the innovation management literature is currently unable to cogently explain why and how firms can believe and deliberately act toward incongruous futures. In this article, we develop a conceptual account providing an explanation for such sustained behaviors. We do so by integrating conviction narrative theory (CNT) and radical innovation management literature and proposing the novel concept of volitional liminality as well as a set of practices that innovation managers can leverage toward sustaining this radical innovation management capability. Managerial Summary Radical innovation is not about predicting the future but about creating it. Unlike incremental innovation, where probabilities and forecasts can guide decisions, radical innovation takes place under radical uncertainty: the future is not only unknown but may unfold in ways fundamentally different from today, leading firms to pursue initiatives pointing to multiple, even conflicting, futures. Our research shows that managers can act deliberately in such situations. Narratives (i.e., stories that link present actions to imagined futures) play a central role in reducing uncertainty and sustaining long‐term commitment. We introduce the concept of volitional liminality , the capability to operate at the threshold of incongruent futures without prematurely closing options. This ability requires more than cognitive analysis; it relies equally on emotions and social interaction. Managers can strengthen this capability in practical ways. For example, they can build team environments that normalize setbacks, encourage curiosity‐driven exploration, and promote trust as a foundation for collaboration. Managers can design leadership approaches and organizational processes that balance accountability with the flexibility needed to adjust course. Finally, organizations can actively involve diverse stakeholders across functions, hierarchies, and external partners to shape and test competing visions of the future, ensuring that innovation efforts remain resilient and adaptable.