Ecological sensitivity assessment and driving force analysis of the Tarim river basin

As a critical ecological barrier and water reservoir in northwest China crucial for regional sustainable development, the Tarim River Basin necessitates comprehensive analysis of its ecological sensitivity distribution and driving factors. In this investigation, we have woven together the Remote Sensing Ecological Index with the sensitivity assessment framework, constructing a comprehensive 15-indicator system for assessing ecological sensitivity. When elucidating the underlying determinants of ecological sensitivity within a watershed, employing the Optimal Parameter Geographic Detector (OPGD) model to discern the primary impetuses. The results showed that habitat quality analysis classified 56.53% of the basin as substandard, concentrated in central-eastern deserts under extreme aridity, while only 6.79% qualified as high-quality zones in northern vegetated areas. Topographic insensitivity dominated, with 70.08% of slopes exhibiting non-responsiveness, and human activities intensified fragility, as 25.09% of the area showed sensitivity to road proximity. Vegetation diversity and soil type interactions demonstrated equivalent explanatory power, with q-values of 0.657. Thermal-hydrological coupling emerged as a critical mechanism, prompting strategies like thermal buffer zones and precision irrigation to mitigate sensitivity hotspots. These results advance arid ecosystem governance by linking spatial heterogeneity to conservation policies. The Optimal Parameter Geodetector identified heat and temperature as dominant drivers, with q-values of 0.731 and 0.7045, respectively. Their synergistic interaction (q = 0.82) amplified thermal impacts from anthropogenic land modifications like irrigation infrastructure. These findings provide critical insights for informing ecological conservation strategies, offering actionable pathways to enhance the resilience and sustainable management of the basin's ecosystems.