Long term variability of agricultural drought’s characteristic in Indonesia

The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) reported that agricultural sector absorbs the highest drought’s direct impact, with multiple effect on food security and rural livelihoods. This study focuses on Indonesia to assess the long-term characteristics of agricultural drought hazards. In Indonesia, wet farming crops such as paddy are major agricultural commodities and staple foods, often planted up to three times per year. However, during the dry cropping season, these crops are highly susceptible to agricultural drought, posing a critical challenge to food security. This study utilized the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), specifically SPEI-3 to represent agricultural drought, to analyze multiple drought indicators-frequency, duration, and intensity-in Indonesia from 1981 to 2020. Monthly precipitation and potential evaporation data were obtained from the ERA5-Land dataset which provide precipitation and potential evapotranspiration with 0.1° resolution from 1950. The assessment revealed an increasing trend in drought frequency, duration, and intensity over recent decades, particularly notable in South Sumatra and Java Island as the region with a high percentage of agricultural area. However, the most severe drought event occurred during 1991-2000, characterized by record-low precipitation compared to other decades. These findings are crucial for identifying hotspot regions to consider drought mitigation and preparedness strategies.