Environmental niche of Pennisetum setaceum (Forssk.) Chiov., 1923, invasive species in Mexico, and climate change scenarios.

Objective: The goal of this work was to know the potential distribution of Pennisetum setaceum (Forssk.) Chiov., 1923 in Mexico, at present and in the future, after its introduction as an ornamental species, which carries a risk of invasion. However, its presence has not been exhaustively monitored, and there are favorable environmental conditions for its distribution in México.Design/methodology/approach: we used MaxEnt algorithm as the methodology of ecological niche modeling. For climate change models, the four SSP scenarios of the IPCC Sixth Report were used.Results: The model generated for P. setaceum presents a potential environmental niche with high probability for the entire Pacific coast and in central Mexico; in general, the future scenarios maintain the central area of the country as the most likely distribution area. These results represent the first models for the potential environmental niche distribution of P. setaceum in Mexico.Limitations on study/implications: However, it is necessary to increase the data from historical records.Findings/conclusions: Monitoring the species could generate more fresh data to improve accuracy in futures models and start reasoning about containment measures, such as restricting its use or pursuing eradication.