Mesoscale Convective Systems over Ecuador: Climatology, Trends and Teleconnections

Research on Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) in Ecuador has focused on regional studies. However, it lacks a thorough and general examination of their relationship with the nation’s diverse orography and large-scale phenomena. This study conducts a climatological analysis of MCS occurrence throughout Ecuador’s natural regions. We perform this study using Sen’s Slope and the Mann–Kendall test. Teleconnections from the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans are studied through wavelet decomposition between time series and Pacific and Atlantic oceanic indices. The main factors that control MCS formation depend on the region. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) at the large scale affects the entire territory. In western Ecuador, MCS formation is mostly related to the El Niño current and the Chocó Low-Level Jet (CLLJ). The Orinoco Low-Level Jet (OLLJ) and evapotranspiration and nocturnal convection display the largest roles in the east. A progressive intensification of activity from Highlands-North in SON is detected (0.143 MCSs per year). MCSs contribute 26% of total precipitation on average, with regional variations from Coast-South (16.41%) to Amazon-North (44.13%). The research confirms existing knowledge about El Niño’s strong relationship (ρ = 0.7) with MCS occurrence in coastal areas while uncovering new complex patterns. The Trans-Nino Index (TNI) functions as a critical two-sided modulator that conventional analysis methods fail to detect. It produces null correlations over conventional time series of MCS occurrence yet emerges as a primary driver of low-frequency variability in the proposed six natural zones of Ecuador. Wavelet decomposition reveals contrasting TNI responses: Amazon-North shows positive correlation (0.73) while Amazon-South exhibits negative correlation (−0.70) at low frequencies. This affects Walker circulations dynamics over the Pacific Ocean. This research establishes fundamental knowledge about MCSs in Ecuador. It builds on a database with strong methodology as a backbone. The research provides essential information about the factors leading to convection in the country. This will help improve seasonal forecast accuracy and risk management effectiveness.