Wetland transformations, underlying drivers, and mitigation solutions using geospatial technologies in the Muga watershed, upper Abay basin, Northeastern Ethiopia

This study explored wetland transformations and their drivers in the Muga watershed, upper Abay basin, Ethiopia, over a 35-year period (1986–2021). It aimed to address gaps in understanding wetland depletion and evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies. Geospatial analysis was conducted using Landsat satellite imagery, with Land use/land cover (LULC) changes identified through a GIS-based approach and Maximum likelihood classification (MLC) method. The classification achieved an overall accuracy of 88.5% and a kappa coefficient of 0.85, ensuring reliable results. Statistical analyses further validated these findings, while surveys and key informant interviews identified primary drivers of wetland loss and assessed existing mitigation efforts. The analysis revealed significant LULC changes over the 35 years. Wetlands, forests, and grasslands declined by 12.42, 9.62, and 5.58%, respectively, while agricultural land and built-up areas increased by 26.54 and 1.09%. Population growth (98.1%), agricultural expansion (92.5%), and overgrazing (93.8%) were identified as the main contributors to wetland degradation. Mitigation efforts, such as establishing buffer zones and managing grazing, were found to be either ineffective or absent in many cases. This study underscores the urgent need for integrated land-use planning, strengthened policy interventions, and community education to address wetland degradation. It also highlights the role of advanced geospatial techniques in detecting and quantifying environmental changes. By addressing the drivers and improving mitigation strategies, this research provides a basis for sustainable management of wetlands in the region.