Green Trade Barriers and Industrial Chain Resilience: Is Green Finance Still Effective?

Against the backdrop of the growing prevalence of green trade barriers, these unilateral measures are continually eroding the industrial chain resilience of developing countries. Taking China’s steel industry as a case study, this research employs the Pressure–State–Response (PSR) framework and a system dynamics model to explore the role of green finance in this process. Scenario-based simulation results indicate that: (1) green trade barriers exert shocks on the industrial chain resilience of China’s steel industry, yet the degree of variation in resistance, recovery, and adaptive capacity differs across dimensions; (2) green finance and its accompanying policies can still play an effective role in responding to green trade barriers, though they are neither a panacea nor the sole solution; (3) the sensitivity of different regulatory measures varies with respect to the distinct dimensions of industrial chain resilience. Drawing on the simulation analysis and subsequent discussion, this study puts forward a set of conditional policy recommendations, providing a reference for governmental decision-making under comparable circumstances.