Projecting Ethiopia’s energy future to 2060: scenario analysis of demand, electrification, and GHG emissions using the LEAP model

Despite Ethiopia’s abundant renewable energy resources, the country continues to face challenges in balancing growing energy demand and ensuring equitable access to modern energy services and climate goals. This study employs the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) to project Ethiopia's energy pathways from 2022 to 2060 under the Business-As-Usual, Universal Electrification and Efficiency, High Economic Growth, and High Urbanisation Growth scenarios. The model incorporates historical demand data, socioeconomic trends, electrification levels, and appliance penetration, particularly cooking, baking and lighting technologies. Results show significant increases in energy demand across all scenarios, with the household sector showing the largest absolute growth. Energy demand is projected to reach 6478 PJ and 6960 PJ by 2060, under the BAU and HEG scenarios, respectively. Conversely, the UEE scenario predicts a slower growth in demand, limiting it to 5660 PJ due to energy efficiency interventions. GHG emissions are expected to rise from 40.7 MtCO2e in 2022 to 214 MtCO2e under BAU and 232.5 MtCO2e under HEG by 2060, underscoring the climate trade-offs of growth pathways. These findings underscore the importance of scenario-based planning for strategic energy and climate policy. The study highlights the need for robust demand-side interventions and targeted electrification strategies aligned with Ethiopia’s sustainable development and climate goals.