Research on Evaporation Duct Height Prediction Modeling in the Yellow and Bohai Seas Using BLA-EDH

Evaporation Duct Height (EDH) is a crucial parameter in evaporation duct modeling, as it directly influences the strength of the waveguide trapping effect and significantly impacts the over-the-horizon detection performance of maritime radars. To address the limitations of low prediction accuracy and limited interpretability in existing deep learning models under complex marine meteorological conditions, this study proposes a surrogate model, BLA-EDH, designed to emulate the output of the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) model for real-time EDH estimation. Experimental results demonstrate that BLA-EDH can effectively replace the traditional NPS model for real-time EDH prediction, achieving higher accuracy than Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models. Random Forest analysis identifies relative humidity (0.2966), wind speed (0.2786), and 2-m air temperature (0.2409) as the most influential environmental variables, with importance scores exceeding those of other factors. Validation using the parabolic equation shows that BLA-EDH attains excellent fitting performance, with coefficients of determination reaching 0.9999 and 0.9997 in the vertical and horizontal dimensions, respectively. This research provides a robust foundation for modeling radio wave propagation in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea regions and offers valuable insights for the development of marine communication and radar detection systems.