Short-Term Displacement Prediction of Rainfall-Induced Landslides Through the Integration of Static and Dynamic Factors: A Case Study of China

Rainfall-induced landslide deformation is governed by both intrinsic geological conditions and external dynamic triggers. However, many existing predictive models rely primarily on rainfall inputs, which limits their interpretability and robustness. To address these shortcomings, this study introduces a group-based data augmentation method informed by displacement curve morphology and proposes a multi-slope predictive framework that integrates static geological attributes with dynamic triggering factors. Using monitoring data from 274 sites across China, the framework was implemented with a Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) and benchmarked against baseline models, including SVR, XGBoost, and LSTM models. The results demonstrate that group-based augmentation enhances the stability and accuracy of predictions, while the integrated dynamic–static TFT framework delivers superior accuracy and improved interpretability. Statistical significance testing further confirms consistent performance improvements across all groups. Collectively, these findings highlight the framework’s effectiveness for short-term landslide forecasting and underscore its potential to advance early warning systems.