Monitoring of Cropland Abandonment Integrating Machine Learning and Google Earth Engine—Taking Hengyang City as an Example

Cropland abandonment, a global challenge, necessitates comprehensive monitoring to achieve the zero hunger goal. Prior monitoring approaches to cropland abandonment often face constraints in resolution, time series, drivers, prediction, or a combination of these. Here, we proposed an artificial intelligence framework to comprehensively monitor cropland abandonment and tested the framework in Hengyang City, China. Specifically, we first mapped land cover at 30 m resolution from 1985 to 2023 using Landsat, stable sample points, and a machine learning model. Subsequently, we constructed the extent, time, and frequency of cropland abandonment from 1986 to 2022 by analyzing pixel-level land-use trajectories. Finally, we quantified the drivers of cropland abandonment using machine learning models and predicted the spatial distribution of cropland abandonment risk from 2032 to 2062. Our results indicated that the abandonment maps achieved overall accuracies of 0.88 and 0.78 for identifying abandonment locations and timing, respectively. From 1986 to 2022, the proportion of cropland abandonment ranged between 0.15% and 4.06%, with an annual average abandonment rate of 1.32%. Additionally, the duration of abandonment varied from 2 to 38 years, averaging approximately 14 years, indicating widespread cropland abandonment in the study area. Furthermore, 62.99% of the abandoned cropland experienced abandonment once, 27.17% experienced it twice, and only 0.23% experienced it five times or more. Over 50% of cropland abandonment remained unreclaimed or reused. During the study period, tree cover, soil pH, soil total phosphorus, potential crop yield, and the multiresolution index of valley bottom flatness emerged as the five most important environmental covariates, with relative importances of 0.087, 0.074, 0.068, 0.050, and 0.043, respectively. Temporally, cropland abandonment in 1992 was influenced by transportation inaccessibility and low agricultural productivity, soil quality degradation became an additional factor by 2010, and synergistic effects of all three drivers were observed from 2012 to 2022. Notably, most cropland had a low abandonment risk (mean: 0.36), with only 0.37% exceeding 0.7, primarily distributed in transitional zones between cropland and non-cropland. Future risk predictions suggested a gradual decline in both risk values and the spatial extent of cropland abandonment from 2032 to 2062. In summary, we developed a comprehensive framework for monitoring cropland abandonment using artificial intelligence technology, which can be used in national or regional land-use policies, warning systems, and food security planning.