Projected Climate Type Shifts in Kayseri under Climate Change Scenarios

Today, global climate change is considered the most important irreversible global problem that will affect all living things and ecosystems on Earth. It is emphasized that the most significant effects of this process will be seen on plants that do not have effective mobility; therefore, sectors such as agriculture and forestry will be significantly affected. To determine the possible effects of this process, which is considered impossible to stop, it is recommended first to predict the change in climate types and take measures on a sectoral basis according to the development of the process. Based on the current temperature, precipitation, and climate types (according to De Martonne and Emberger climate classification) of Kayseri province, the sixth largest agricultural field in Türkiye, were determined in the study, and it was attempted to find how these parameters will change by 2060 and 2100 according to SSPs245 and SSPs585 scenarios. As a result of the study, it is determined that the climate types will change significantly throughout Kayseri province, primarily in the form of temperature increase and precipitation decrease, and the climate types will shift to arid climate ones. Moreover, these changes will be felt intensively until 2060; for example, according to the Emberger climate classification, the semi-humid climate type prevails in 65.82% of Kayseri province in 2025, while the semi-arid climate type is estimated to prevail in about 75.87% of the province according to the SSP245 (shared socioeconomic pathways) scenario and 76.55% according to the SSPs585 scenario by 2060. It is proposed to take measures on a sectoral basis to avoid the devastating effects of global climate change. Cite this article as: D.nmez, S. (2025). Projected climate type shifts in Kayseri under climate change scenarios. Forestist, 75, 0030, doi:10.5152/ forestist.2025.25030.