When expectations backfire: A longitudinal analysis on unmet migration expectations and destination attachment of recent immigrants to Switzerland

Immigrants with higher levels of education tend to report more discrimination and a weaker attachment to their destination country than immigrants with lower levels of education. This so-called integration paradox is thought to occur because of two basic, mutually independent mechanisms: (1) highly educated immigrants more often experience unmet migration expectations, and (2) show stronger negative reactions when their expectations about their life abroad are not met. Existing research mainly focused on the first mechanism, and empirically tracing the second has been challenging due to a lack of evidence comparing less- and more-educated immigrants’ reactions over time. Here, we address this gap and examine how unmet migration expectations contribute to education-related differences in destination attachment. Using panel data on recent immigrants to Switzerland from the Swiss Migration-Mobility Survey (N = 5,242 immigrants and 13,890 observations, 2016-2022), we assessed the extent of unmet expectations and associated disappointment through a question on dissatisfaction with the decision to migrate. Consistent with theory, we found that increasingly negative evaluations of pre-migration expectations were linked to reduced destination attachment, especially for immigrants with higher levels of education. These results suggest a fundamental mechanism for the emergence of the integration paradox, enhancing our understanding of immigrant integration.