Factores Estructurales y Dinámicas Contextuales en la Aprobación Presidencial en América Latina: Un Análisis Multinivel

This study investigates how economic, political, and social factors shape presidential approval ratings in six Latin American democracies (Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Venezuela) from 1987 to 2018. We estimate OLS models, fixed and random effects panel data models, and a multilevel model with country-specific intercepts. The results show that social mobilization and presidential scandals substantially and consistently reduce approval ratings. Among economic variables, unemployment has a robust negative effect, while growth and inflation do not exhibit systematic associations. At the institutional level, a higher percentage of ruling party seats is counterintuitively associated with lower approval ratings, while respect for the Constitution and the legitimacy of leadership act as positive buffers. The multilevel model reveals differences between countries, with Ecuador consistently at the top and Venezuela at the bottom. Overall, the evidence suggests that presidential approval ratings in the region respond primarily to political and social shocks and the perceived quality of leadership, rather than to aggregate macroeconomic developments.