Price Rigidities, Central Bank Credibility, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Case of Türkiye

The purpose of this study is to examine the extent to which the exchange rate influences consumer prices in Türkiye. Monthly data spanning from 2006:01 to 2023:12 are utilized for this purpose. The paper utilizes the dynamic autoregressive distributed lag cointegration test and the frequency domain Granger causality test, which furnish findings for short and long terms. The results of the cointegration test suggest that an increase in the exchange rate has a positive impact on domestic prices in both short and long terms. Furthermore, the results derived from the causality test indicate the existence of short-term and long-term causal relationships running from the exchange rate to domestic prices. The results of this study demonstrate that exchange rate shocks in Türkiye have an immediate and lasting effect on domestic prices. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.