IMPACTS OF INCOME SHOCKS AND SOCIAL PROTECTION ON RURAL HOUSEHOLDS’ FOOD INSECURITY EXPERIENCES DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES IN NORTHERN NIGERIA

Social protection is one of the major policy instruments for addressing households’ vulnerability to income shocks and poverty across the globe. In Nigeria, the COVID-19 pandemic presented a double tragedy to rural households in northern Nigeria due to their pre-pandemic exposure to several income shocks and conflicts. Therefore, this study analysed the impacts of income shocks and social protection on food insecurity experiences (FIE). The data were collected by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) as Data in Emergency Monitoring (DIEM) from 4412 households in two Rounds in 2021 and 2022. The data were analysed by negative binomial regression and treatment effects with regression estimator. The results showed that majority of the respondents were permanent residents (94.88%), while the highest reported income shocks were high food price (34.00%), violence (23.07%), high fuel price (20.24%), and loss of employment (11.65%). Social assistances in the form of food and cash vouchers were received by 5.92% and 2.61%, respectively. At the mild level of food insecurity, 67.84% worried about food, 71.48% ate less healthy food, and 71.62% ate few food, while at chronic level, 23.13% went the whole day without food. The negative binomial regression showed that education levels, male headship, income, and permanent residence significantly reduced (p<0.05) the expected number of FIE. The average treatment effect (ATE) showed that loss of employment, other household shocks, high food prices, other economic shocks, animal diseases, violence and insecurity significantly increased (p<0.05) FIE, while pest outbreaks reduced it. Also, those who received food had significantly higher FIE (p<0.05). It was concluded that income shocks promoted FIE during the COVID-19 pandemic, while social assistances insignificantly addressed the problems. It was recommended that efforts to address food insecurity should be gender sensitive, address insecurity of human lives and properties, and promote education among rural households.