Land use change and mangrove conservation strategies in the Gulf of Guayaquil Ecuador through spatial and delphi based analysis

Mangroves are vital for environmental sustainability and coastal livelihoods, providing protection, biodiversity, and carbon storage. In Ecuador, they face pressure from aquaculture expansion and governance gaps. This study analyzes land use and cover changes in the inner estuary of the Gulf of Guayaquil (2000–2022), focusing on interactions among mangrove dynamics, aquaculture, and policy implementation. We used MapBiomas Ecuador data, the Delphi method, and Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats analysis to assess governance structures and identify strategic priorities. Aquaculture expanded by 20,610 ha, replacing agricultural and forested lands, while mangrove cover increased by 6,111 ha, especially in areas near protected zones and Ramsar sites. Key instruments like Ministerial Agreement No. 172 and the Socio Manglar program have supported community-based conservation. Based on the findings, we proposed a conceptual governance pathway with three pillars: legal frameworks, economic incentives, and adaptive monitoring. However, gaps remain in traceability, coordination, and enforcement. Future policy and research should prioritize strengthening these areas and scaling adaptive, community-centered governance models to achieve sustainable livelihoods and long-term mangrove conservation.