Crime trends among Italian minors: observed changes during and after the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract Purpose Previous research has documented changes in crime trends during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, less is known about crime trends after the pandemic and among minors. In this study, we investigate changes in crime trends among Italian minors during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods The data for the current research consist of reports of crimes involving minors, submitted to judicial authorities by Italian law enforcement agencies, covering the period from 2004 to 2023. Using simple moving averages, observed crime rates were compared to expected values. Results Overall, we found that the number of reports of most types of crime did not change significantly during or after the COVID-19 pandemic. During the pandemic period, only child sexual abuse, theft, and drug trafficking and possession significantly decreased and, in the post-pandemic period, quickly returned to pre-pandemic baseline values. In contrast, the post-pandemic period was marked by an increase in attempted murder, physical assault, deliberate injury, threats, and robbery. Conclusions We conclude that the COVID-19 pandemic may have had both criminogenic and anti-criminogenic effects. Moreover, the increase in certain types of crimes in the post-pandemic period may be attributed to marginalization, socioeconomic disparities, and economic hardships.