Investigation of Weather-Related Aviation Accidents in Hawai‘i from 2003 to 2022

Abstract Hawai‘i sees a significant number of aviation accidents each year, many of which are caused by weather. In an effort to mitigate such incidents in the future, weather-related aviation accidents in Hawai‘i between 2003 and 2022 are investigated. A data catalog is created using the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) reports, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather charts, satellite imagery, atmospheric soundings, Automated Surface Observing System/Automated Weather Observing System (ASOS/AWOS) surface winds, and Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) data. It serves as the basis for the analysis of the days on which accidents occurred. A machine learning algorithm is implemented to compare accident days to nonaccident days. Results show that most weather-related accidents take place during trade wind conditions and occur on O‘ahu, Moloka‘i, and Maui. When looking at the monthly distribution, there is a higher incidence of accidents during the winter months. This is due to the fact that in addition to trade wind accidents, over 75% of cases that are linked to a synoptic-scale disturbance occur during this time. Atmospheric stability and wind speeds below the trade wind inversion are deemed most crucial when assessing atmospheric conditions for aviation safety. For fatal accidents, surface winds are observed to be a factor. Shearlines and troughs are associated with the majority of fatal weather-related accidents. In particular, trade wind days during which a shearline is present account for the largest number of fatal cases. This suggests that the most hazardous days for aviation in Hawai‘i are not necessarily those with the most severe weather but those that subtly deviate from the familiar trade wind regime—conditions that can be easily overlooked. Significance Statement Weather is believed to play a significant role in aviation accidents in Hawai‘i. This study analyzes weather-related helicopter and airplane accidents in Hawai‘i from 2003 to 2022 with the objective to better understand the conditions that caused them and help minimize future accidents. We found that weather was indeed the leading cause or contributing factor for aviation accidents in Hawai‘i during this period and identified atmospheric stability and wind speeds below the trade wind inversion as the atmospheric variables most critical for aviation safety among those considered. Additionally, we were able to show that machine learning models have the potential to assist in determining the factors responsible for these accidents and recommend future research to further explore this path.