Biomod2 modeling for predicting the potential ecological distribution of Lilium Davidii var. Willmottiae (E. H. Wilson) Raffill

Lilium davidii var. willmottiae (E. H. Wilson) Raffill (L. davidii), a unique sweet lily variety globally, has been cultivated in China for over a century. It holds significant cultural and economic value, recognized as a national geographical indication product. This study aimed to accurately simulate and predict the potential suitable habitats for L. davidii in China using species distribution modeling (SDM) techniques and comprehensive environmental data. By leveraging geographic distribution data of L. davidii within China and integrating it with climate and topographical variables within the biomod2 modeling framework, the potential suitable habitats for L. davidii under current conditions were assessed. An in-depth analysis of the key environmental variables determining its distribution pattern was also conducted. The biomod2 ensemble model demonstrated high accuracy in identifying suitable habitats for L. davidii, achieving an AUC of 0.855 and a TSS of 0.957. The analysis revealed that temperature seasonality (bio4), elevation (Elev), and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6) are the core environmental factors significantly influencing its suitable distribution range. These findings enhance the scientific understanding of the ecological adaptability of L. davidii and provide a scientific basis for optimizing planting layouts, precision agriculture practices, rational expansion of planting areas, germplasm resource protection, and formulating sustainable utilization strategies. Ultimately, this research contributes to promoting the development of specialty agriculture and protecting the ecological environment for this important species.