The moderating role of happiness in the relationship between fertility desire and behavior in China

This paper examines how happiness moderates the relationship between fertility desire and actual fertility behavior in contemporary China. Drawing on data from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) for the years 2012, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2021, we employ Poisson and logistic regression models to analyze this dynamic. The results indicate that while fertility desire significantly predicts the number of children, happiness exerts a positive moderating effect: individuals who report higher levels of happiness are more likely to act on their fertility desires. To mitigate concerns of endogeneity, we use instrumental variables related to clan culture. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that this moderating effect of happiness is stronger among older birth cohorts. Additionally, our findings suggest that rising parenting costs—particularly education expenses—dampen the positive effect of happiness, while the expansion of social security reduces the reliance on children for old-age support, thereby weakening the happiness-fertility linkage. These results highlight the need for fertility policies that go beyond economic incentives and aim to foster a broader sense of well-being to create a supportive environment for childbearing.