Evaluating the impact of Ethiopia’s green legacy initiative on land use/cover change in Gubalafto district using google earth engine

Ethiopia's Green Legacy Initiative (GLI), launched in 2019, aims to combat environmental degradation through large-scale afforestation. This study quantitatively evaluates GLI's impact on land use/cover (LU/C) dynamics (2013–2024) in Gubalafto District, North-eastern Ethiopia, using Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 imagery processed via Google Earth Engine (GEE) employing the Random Forest (RF) algorithm and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) analysis. The RF classifier achieved high accuracy (OA = 99% for 2016–2024 and OA = 73% in 2013) in mapping six LU/C classes. Key findings reveal significant ecological shifts: woodland increased by 41.85 km2 (net gain), largely through conversion from agricultural land (76.93 km2) and bareland (16.06 km2). Forest cover fluctuated, declining from 16.43% (165.96 km2) in 2013 to 14.60% (147.47 km2) in 2024; this might be influenced by armed conflict post-2020 that disrupted restoration efforts. The NDVI analysis showed high-density vegetation rising from 0.98% (9.89 km2) in 2013 to 9.38% (94.71 km2) in 2024, peaking in 2020 (NDVI max: 0.95). Despite the nationwide planting of 38.6 billion seedlings, district-level survival rates averaged only 39.80% (range: 7.59–76.50%), indicating a critical gap between planting efforts and sustainable outcomes. The study demonstrates GLI's effectiveness in woodland recovery and greening but highlights vulnerabilities from socio-political instability and inadequate seedling maintenance. Prioritizing survival rates through improved species selection, irrigation, community engagement, and integrating GLI within broader peace-building frameworks are indeed to ensure long-term ecological resilience.