Energy Systems in Transition: A Regional Analysis of Eastern Europe’s Energy Challenges

This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the energy systems in eight Eastern European countries—Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia—focusing on their energy transition, security of supply, decarbonisation, and energy efficiency. Using principal component analysis (PCA) and clustering techniques, we identify three different energy profiles: countries dependent on fossil fuels (e.g., Poland, Bulgaria), countries with a balanced mix of nuclear and fossil fuels (e.g., the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary), and countries focusing mainly on renewables (e.g., Slovenia, Croatia). The sectoral analysis shows that industry and transport are the main drivers of energy consumption and CO2 emissions, and the challenges and policy priorities of decarbonisation are determined. Regression modelling shows that dependence on fossil fuels strongly influences the use of renewable energy and electricity consumption patterns, while national differences in per capita electricity consumption are influenced by socio-economic and political factors that go beyond the energy structure. The Decarbonisation Level Index (DLI) indicator shows that Bulgaria and the Czech Republic achieve a high degree of self-sufficiency in domestic energy, while Hungary and Slovakia are the most dependent on imports. A typology based on energy intensity and import dependency categorises Romania as resilient, several countries as balanced, and Hungary, Slovakia, and Croatia as vulnerable. The projected investments up to 2030 indicate an annual increase in clean energy production of around 123–138 TWh through the expansion of nuclear energy, the development of renewable energy, the phasing out of coal, and the improvement of energy efficiency, which could reduce CO2 emissions across the region by around 119–143 million tons per year. The policy recommendations emphasise the accelerated phase-out of coal, supported by just transition measures, the use of nuclear energy as a stable backbone, the expansion of renewables and energy storage, and a focus on the electrification of transport and industry. The study emphasises the significant influence of European Union (EU) policies—such as the “Clean Energy for All Europeans” and “Fit for 55” packages—on the design of national strategies through regulatory frameworks, financing, and market mechanisms. This analysis provides important insights into the heterogeneity of Eastern European energy systems and supports the design of customised, coordinated policy measures to achieve a sustainable, secure, and climate-resilient energy transition in the region.