UKRAINE’S RESILIENCE AS A CATALYST FOR THE DECLINE OF RUSSIA’S GEOPOLITICAL INFLUENCE AND THE REORIENTATION OF FOREIGN POLICY IN THE POST-SOVIET SPACE

The relevance of this study lies in the radical transformations of the geopolitical landscape of the post-Soviet space, triggered by the prolonged aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine. The war has served as a catalyst for the rethinking of foreign policy strategies by numerous former Soviet republics. Against the backdrop of Russia’s weakening status as a geopolitical actor, countries in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and the Eastern Partnership have increasingly pursued diversified foreign policy trajectories. The objective of this research is to identify and systematize key trends in the behavior of post-Soviet states in response to the shifting balance of power in the international system caused by Russia’s war against Ukraine. The study employs comparative historical analysis, case study methodology, elements of geopolitical analysis, and inductive reasoning to derive general patterns from empirical observations. Findings indicate a growing tendency among post-Soviet countries to engage in foreign policy maneuvering and reduce their dependence on Russia. Armenia has initiated a strategic rapprochement with the United States, Azerbaijan has expelled Russian peacekeepers from Karabakh, and Kazakhstan has pursued a policy of balancing between Russia, China, and the West. Similar tendencies can be observed in Georgia, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. For its part, Russia has attempted to compensate for its declining influence through military presence, energy leverage, and control over domestic political elites in neighboring states — tools that are becoming increasingly ineffective. The decline in Russian influence creates favorable conditions for a new configuration of international relations in the region. The study demonstrates that the key factor driving changes in the geopolitical orientation of post-Soviet countries is not only pressure from the Euro-Atlantic community but also the enduring resilience and resistance of Ukraine. This motivates political elites across the region to seek alternative pathways in security, economics, and international cooperation. Future empirical research on individual countries is recommended to explore strategies for further reducing Russian influence and strengthening the sovereignty of post-Soviet states within the international system.