Consequences of the July (2025) EU–US agreement for Germany’s economic and political space

The article analyzes the implications for Germany’s economic Standort of the agreements reached between the European Union and the United States on July 27, 2025, in Scotland. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed on tariff parameters for mutual trade in goods, as well as the EU’s commitments to purchase American hydrocarbons and make investments in the U.S. economy. On the EU side, one of the main moderators of the negotiation process was German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who initially regarded it as an important contribution to stabilizing Germany’s economic crisis and preventing further deterioration. According to the head of the German government, this goal was achieved. However, the German expert and business community largely took an opposing view, believing that the new tariffs would hinder overcoming the deep recession and worsen Standort competitiveness. In addition, doubts were expressed about the feasibility of Ursula von der Leyen’s multibillion-dollar energy and investment promises. The author critically evaluates these positions and offers his own perspective on the short- and medium-term consequences for Germany’s economic and political Standort