Evaluating the intensity of destabilising factors affecting operational and investigative activities in money laundering and illicit legalisation

The relevance of this study stems from the need to enhance mechanisms for countering financial crime amid increasing threats to the state’s economic security during martial law. This study aimed to assess the intensity of the impact of destabilising factors on operational and investigative activities in the area of money laundering and the illicit legalisation of proceeds. The research methodology was based on an expert survey involving 40 specialists, who were asked to complete a questionnaire using the pairwise comparison method with the Saaty scale. Seven key destabilising factors were identified, with the most influential being the globalisation of financial flows, the proliferation of digital currencies, and the inadequacy of the regulatory and legal framework. The impact of each factor was evaluated across three scenarios: realistic, pessimistic, and optimistic. For each scenario, reciprocal comparison matrices were constructed, on the basis of which normalised weights and factor rankings were calculated. It was found that, under a negative development scenario, the threat posed by internal abuses and insufficient technical training of personnel increases significantly. It was concluded that effective counteraction to financial crime requires the simultaneous reform of legislation, the modernisation of the technical infrastructure of law enforcement agencies, and the strengthening of international cooperation. The importance of adapting legal mechanisms to the rapid evolution of financial technologies was also emphasised. The practical value of the findings lies in their potential application by operational unit managers, policymakers, and financial security analysts to improve systems for identifying and neutralising financial threats