Spheres of influence in Central Asia: a comparative study of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union

The concept of spheres of influence, originally established in the 19th century to prevent conflicts among great powers and maintain geopolitical stability, has evolved significantly in the modern era. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia and China have emerged as the primary competitors for influence in Central Asia, each striving to secure strategic interests, foster economic integration, and address regional security challenges. Historically, Russia has regarded Central Asia as its exclusive sphere of influence. However, China’s rapid economic growth and expanding political ambitions have increasingly challenged Moscow’s traditional dominance in the region. This research aims to analyze the interplay between Sino-Russian influence in Central Asia through the dual lenses of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Drawing from historical contexts and focusing on current dynamics, the study presents a comparative analysis of their respective strategies for economic integration and geopolitical influence. By comparing these initiatives, this study provides a nuanced understanding of the distinct approaches China and Russia adopt to exert power in Central Asia. The findings offer critical insights for Central Asian nations as they navigate the overlapping ambitions of these two powers, highlighting strategies to optimize benefits while safeguarding their sovereignty and independence.