THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE AND WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THE DYNAMICS OF WINTER WHEAT YIELD IN THE KURSK REGION

Purpose: to determine the limiting weather factors affecting the winter wheat yield under the climatic conditions of the Kursk region by time periods. Materials and methods. The dynamics of the winter wheat yield under the climatic conditions of the Kursk region and the associated data on weather conditions in the region were studied using archival and statistical data from the late ХIХth – early ХХth centuries (1899–1907, 1913) and from the mid-ХХth century to the present day for 77 years (from 1947 to 2023). Results. It was revealed that the winter wheat yield in the Kursk region varied from 7.2 to 16.3 c/ha from 1899 to 1907. A colossal increase in the winter wheat yield from 6.3 to 62.7 c/ha was observed in 1947–2023. In 1947–1993, the winter wheat yield increased by 5.0 c/ha every ten years, and by 14 c/ha in 1994–2023. Typical weather conditions for winter wheat cultivation in the Kursk region occur in 45–42.6 % of years, favorable in 23.3–33.0 %, and unfavorable in 22.0–33.3 %. Conclusions. An increase in the average monthly air temperature in February and March had a positive effect on the winter wheat yield in all the periods under consideration. To obtain a high yield, the air temperature in May must not exceed 13 °C, in June – 18 °C, in July – 20 °C, and in August about 20 °C, and the amount of precipitation in May must be higher than the long-term average annual. An increase in the average annual air temperature by 1 °C leads to an increase in yield by 6.9 c/ha with a probability of 51 %. With the sum of accumulated effective temperatures over 10 °C, the winter wheat yield tends to increase.