STOCK MARKET RISKS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES: LESSONS FROM BRICS DURING GLOBAL CRISES, 1990–2023

Financial crises exert disproportionate effects on emerging markets due to structural vulnerabilities, external shocks, and limited fiscal buffers.The BRICS bloc Brazil,Russia,India,China,and South Africa have grown into an influential part of the global economy, accounting for a significant share of global GDP and trade.Yet their financial markets remain fragile during crises. This paper investigates the downside risk of BRICS stock markets across five crises: the Asian Financial Crisis (1997–98), the Dot-com Bubble (2000–01), the Global Financial Crisis (2008–09), the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020–21), and the post-pandemic shocks of inflation and the Russia–Ukraine war (2022–23). We employ Value-at-Risk (VaR),Expected Shortfall (ES), and GARCH estimations on daily stock data from 1990–2023.Results show Brazil and Russia are consistently risky due to commodity dependence and geopolitical fragility. India suffered its steepest declines during COVID-19, reflecting health and fiscal vulnerabilities. China showed resilience thanks to capital controls and strong state intervention,though it faltered during the GFC.South Africa, structurally tied to global capital flows and commodity cycles,displayed moderate but persistent risk.Correlation analysis highlights increased co-movement during pandemic and conflict crises, reducing diversification benefits.The study concludes that hybrid crises combining health, inflation, and geopolitics induce deeper volatility than financial crises alone. Policy implications stress macroprudential buffers,coordinated BRICS crisis response,and global diversification strategies.