Labour Market Outcomes for Low-Achieving Students Over the Past Three Decades in Sweden

While the strong correlation between school achievement and future success is well-documented, there is limited research on how this relationship has evolved over time for different groups of individuals. Specifically, it remains unclear whether and how the life chances of low-achieving students have changed over the years. This study explores the consequences of low academic achievement on labor market outcomes in Sweden from 1994 to 2019, a period marked by educational reforms. Utilizing longitudinal Swedish data from a comprehensive register database, we analyze employment rates and income levels using descriptive statistics and regression analysis. The findings reveal significant income disparities between low and high achievers, with the former facing persistently lower income levels. For younger birth cohorts, these differences are more pronounced, highlighting the increased importance of schooling. Further, it has become increasingly difficult for individuals who have experienced school failure, such as not completing compulsory school, to obtain or retain employment. For 40-year-olds, employment has decreased by 10 percentage points between older (early 1970s) and younger (late 1980s) birth cohorts. Furthermore, while substantial, the income disparities between males and females, as well as among groups with different social backgrounds, have remained relatively stable across birth cohorts.