Domestic Conflict and Foreign Belligerence: Revisiting a Vintage Puzzle

Abstract Large-N statistical studies have found little or no association between domestic conflict and belligerent foreign policies. A strong and persistent intuition that this negative finding is unwarranted has nevertheless encouraged scholars to revisit the topic. Seven recent contributions propose divergent theoretical arguments to explain external bellicosity in terms of internal turmoil. Important implications can be drawn from each explanation, which can be tested against cases from the contemporary Middle East and North Africa. This exercise shows that two lines of argument provide a firmer foundation than the others for further research.