Unraveling Multiscale Spatiotemporal Linkages of Groundwater Storage and Land Deformation in the North China Plain After the South-to-North Water Diversion Project

Leveraging multi-source remote sensing datasets and dynamic groundwater monitoring well observations, this study explores the multiscale spatiotemporal linkages of groundwater storage changes and land deformation in North China Plain (NCP) after the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP). Firstly, we employed Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) technology to estimate groundwater storage (GWS) and land deformation. Secondly and significantly, we proposed a novel GRACE statistical downscaling algorithm that integrates a weight allocation strategy and GWS estimation applied with InSAR technology. Finally, the downscaled results were employed to analyze spatial differences in land deformation across typical ground fissure areas. The results indicate that (1) between 2018 and 2021, groundwater storage in the NCP exhibited a declining trend, with an average reduction of −3.81 ± 0.53 km3/a and a maximum land deformation rate of −177 mm/a; (2) the downscaled groundwater storage anomalies (GWSA) showed high correlation with in situ measurements (R = 0.75, RMSE = 2.91 cm); and (3) in the Shunyi fissure area, groundwater storage on the northern side increased continuously, with a maximum growth rate of 28 mm/a, resulting in surface uplift exceeding 70 mm.