Research on Capacity Prediction and Interpretability of Dense Gas Pressure Based on Ensemble Learning

Data-driven modeling methods have been preliminarily applied in the development of tight-gas reservoirs, demonstrating unique advantages in post-fracturing productivity prediction. However, most of the established predictive models are “black-box” models, which provide productivity predictions based on a set of input parameters without revealing the internal prediction mechanisms. This lack of transparency reduces the credibility and practical utility of such models. To address the challenges of poor performance and low trustworthiness of “black-box” machine learning models, this study explores a data-driven approach to “black-box” predictive modeling by integrating ensemble learning with interpretability methods. The results indicate the following: The post-fracturing productivity prediction model for tight-gas reservoirs developed in this study, based on ensemble learning, achieves a goodness of fit of 0.923, representing a 26.09% improvement compared to the best-performing individual machine learning model. The stacking ensemble model predicts post-fracturing productivity for horizontal wells more accurately and effectively mitigates the prediction biases of individual machine learning models. An interpretability method for the “black-box” ensemble learning-based productivity prediction model was established, revealing the ranked importance of factors influencing post-fracturing productivity: reservoir properties, controllable operational parameters, and rock mechanics. This ranking aligns with the results of orthogonal experiments from mechanism-driven numerical models, providing mutual validation and enhancing the credibility of the ensemble learning-based productivity prediction model. In conclusion, this study integrates mechanistic numerical models and data-driven models to explore the influence of various factors on post-fracturing productivity. The cross-validation of results from both approaches underscores the reliability of the findings, offering theoretical and methodological support for the design of fracturing schemes and the iterative advancement of fracturing technologies in tight-gas reservoirs.