The impact of environmental regulations and digital empowerment on agri-food supply chains under stochastic market demand conditions

The green transformation of agri-food supply chains is vital for reducing environmental burdens and ensuring food safety. However, research lacks a comprehensive understanding of how environmental regulations and digital technologies synergistically drive this transformation under market uncertainties and stakeholder behavioral complexities. This research gap limits the development of effective policies and strategies for sustainable agricultural development. To address this gap, we adopted an integrated perspective of environmental regulation and digital empowerment to construct a tripartite evolutionary game model involving farmers, wholesalers, and government. Based on evolutionary game theory and stochastic differential equations, we analyzed how strategies evolve and reach equilibrium under the combined influence of policy interventions, market dynamics, and technological adoption. Through sensitivity analysis of key parameters, the results revealed that green production costs, digital technology costs, market premiums, and regulatory intensity significantly determine the system's evolutionary trajectory. The initial strategy distribution affects convergence speed, while market volatility and bounded rationality may cause fluctuations or destabilization. This research advances theoretical understanding of sustainable transformation mechanisms in agri-food supply chains and provides practical insights for developing resilient green supply systems and targeted agricultural policies.