COVID-19’s Impact on Türkiye’s Lemon Exports: Constant Market Share Decomposition (2015–2024)

Türkiye’s role in the global lemon trade was evaluated using the Constant Market Share (CMS) method to assess changes in export competitiveness across major destination markets. The CMS framework decomposes export performance into three components—market share effect, commodity composition effect, and commodity adaptation effect—which, respectively, represent competitiveness, product–market alignment, and structural responsiveness. Trade data for the ten largest importing countries, representing over 80% of Türkiye’s lemon exports, were analyzed to identify the drivers of export growth and structural change. Results show a sharp decline in competitiveness during the COVID-19 disruption, followed by a partial recovery in markets such as Iraq, Poland, Russia, and Azerbaijan. Persistent structural rigidities were identified in several Eastern European and Gulf markets, indicating limited responsiveness to shifting import demand. The findings highlight the need for flexible production systems, improved alignment of export structures with market requirements, and strategic partnerships to sustain long-term competitiveness in the global citrus sector.