Building Adaptive and Resilient Distance Military Education Systems Through Data-Driven Decision-Making

Distance learning has become essential to higher education, yet its application in military officer training presents unique academic, operational, and security challenges. For Lithuania’s future officers, remote education must foster not only knowledge acquisition but also decision-making, leadership, and operational readiness—competencies traditionally developed in immersive, in-person environments. This study addresses these challenges by integrating System Dynamics Modelling, Contemporary Risk Management Standards (ISO 31000:2022; Dynamic Risk Management Framework), and Learning Analytics to evaluate the interdependencies among twelve critical factors influencing the system resilience and effectiveness of distance military education. Data were collected from fifteen domain experts through structured pairwise influence assessments, applying the fuzzy DEMATEL method to map causal relationships between criteria. Results identified key causal drivers such as Feedback Loop Effectiveness, Scenario Simulation Capability, and Predictive Intervention Effectiveness, which most strongly influence downstream outcomes like learner engagement, risk identification, and instructional adaptability. These findings emphasize the strategic importance of upstream feedback, proactive risk planning, and advanced analytics in enhancing operational readiness. By bridging theoretical modelling, contemporary risk governance, and advanced learning analytics, this study offers a scalable framework for decision-making in complex, high-stakes education systems. The causal relationships revealed here provide a blueprint not only for optimizing military distance education but also for enhancing overall system resilience and adaptability in other critical domains.