Multi-Scenario Analysis of Brackish Water Irrigation Efficiency Based on the SBM Model

The North China Plain faces severe water scarcity, and the efficient use of brackish water has become a crucial pathway for sustaining agricultural development. In this study, we combine scenario analysis with Data Envelopment Analysis to establish a multi-scenario efficiency evaluation framework. Focusing on six counties in Handan, Hebei Province, we employ an input-oriented Slack-Based Measure Data Envelopment Analysis (SBM-DEA) model to systematically evaluate brackish water irrigation efficiency (BWIE) across a baseline year (2020) and eight projected scenarios for 2030. The results show that the mean efficiency values across scenarios range from 0.646 to 0.909. Scenarios combining universal adoption of water-saving irrigation with normal hydrological conditions achieve the highest mean efficiency (>0.9), with minimal regional disparities and optimal system stability. The promotion of water-saving irrigation technologies is the primary driver of improved BWIE, whereas simply increasing brackish water application yields only limited marginal benefits. Redundancy analysis further indicates that water resource inputs are the main source of efficiency loss, with brackish water redundancy (42.3%) far exceeding that of land inputs (10.5%). These findings provide quantitative evidence and methodological support for optimizing regional water allocation and advancing sustainable agricultural development.