TCN-Transformer-Based Risk Assessment Method for Power Flow and Voltage Limit Violations in Active Distribution Networks

With the increasing penetration of renewable energy, traditional distribution network operation state assessment methods based on typical operating conditions are no longer applicable. It is urgent to conduct risk assessment research on the dynamic coupling characteristics of voltage, power flow, and distributed generation output after photovoltaic integration into active distribution networks. This paper first analyzes the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of power flow distribution and voltage fluctuations in active distribution networks, and proposes evaluation indicators for power flow and voltage over limit risks. Secondly, feature quantities related to the over limit risk assessment indicators are selected, and a distribution network over limit risk assessment method based on TCN-Transformer neural network architecture is proposed. Finally, based on the improved IEEE 33 node distribution network model, an active distribution network simulation model is built in Matlab (2023b), and a simulation dataset is constructed for multiple operating scenarios. On this basis, a comparative analysis of risk assessment examples for power flow and voltage exceeding limits is conducted, and the results verify the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.