Assessing the spatiotemporal characteristics and dynamic evolution of non-grain production on cultivated land in China

Based on statistical data from 31 provinces in China, this study evaluated the level of non-grain production (NGP) on cultivated land from 2000 to 2022. We employed methods such as Moran's I index, Dagum Gini coefficient, kernel density estimation, and spatial Markov chains to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal distribution, dynamic evolution, and regional disparities of NGP in China. Our findings revealed that China's NGP level consistently increased, with NGP of output structure surpassing NGP of planting structure. Among the three major grain functional zones, the major grain-sales areas exhibited the highest NGP levels. The production-sales balanced areas followed, and the major grain-producing areas had the lowest. NGP demonstrated a significant positive spatial correlation, with provinces evolving toward ‘high-low’ concentration zones. The regional disparities in China's NGP first narrowed, then widened, and eventually tended toward stability. Inter-group differences were the primary drivers of significant NGP disparities. China's NGP continued to rise, though the trend slowed, and polarization effects diminished. As the level of spatial lag increased, the probability of upward NGP transfer showed a marginally diminishing trend. Economic development, urbanization, income, income disparity, mechanization, cultivated land area, and fiscal expenditure constituted pivotal determinants of NGP.