Simulating the Consequences of a Common Weather Shock on Livestock Outcomes in Tropical Africa: An Integrated Modeling Approach

Abstract Using an innovative economywide framework that captures crop–livestock interactions, this study examines the economic and livestock system impacts of a typical drought shock in tropical Africa, focusing on Ethiopia. Findings from the model reveal a significant decline in livestock gross domestic product (GDP), mainly due to reduced raw milk production. Postdrought recovery exhibits diverging trends between the cattle sector and raw milk production. The study also highlights a strong interdependence between primary livestock activities and downstream processing sectors. Regarding livestock system outcome indicators, milk and meat yields initially decline but recover when per capita feed availability improves after the drought, with milk yield showing a stronger response than meat yield. Farmers’ response strategies also significantly affect the recovery dynamics of the economic and livestock systems. Destocking increases cattle GDP by 2.1% through higher offtake but reduces milk GDP, while restocking initially lowers livestock GDP, with cattle and milk GDP moving inversely. Over 3 years, both strategies delivered positive GDP growth compared to the drought scenario. In contrast, the feed production intervention has the opposite effect, highlighting differing impacts of response strategies. As for the livestock system outcomes, destocking improves meat and milk yields initially because of better per capita feed availability, but both destocking and restocking later reduce yields as stock increases. Meat and milk outputs exhibit notable changes, driven by fluctuations in cattle numbers associated with drought and recovery strategies. The study provides insights into the economic and system-level consequences of droughts and informs policy and intervention planning.