Intensification of extreme cold events in East Asia in response to global mean sea-level rise
Today, the global mean sea level (GMSL) stands ~ 20 cm higher than at the beginning of the last century, and the rate of sea-level rise has been accelerating in recent decades. Even a slight, globally uniform sea-level rise can notably impact atmospheric and oceanic circulations at climatic and potentially synoptic scales. However, the extent to which sea-level rise will influence extreme weather remains largely unknown. Here, we focus on East Asia and conduct climate model experiments to investigate the effects of GMSL rise on winter cold extremes. Our experiments demonstrate that GMSL rise promotes stronger and more frequent extreme cold events, and this influence is expected to strengthen significantly in the coming century. This effect is attributed to weakened mid-high latitude westerly winds and increased occurrence of blocking events over Eurasia. Our study presents evidence that GMSL rise can modify synoptic systems and intensify extreme events, suggesting that both coastal and inland countries are exposed to threats arising from GMSL rise.
Authors
- Odd Helge Otterå (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1332-5552)
- Caoyi Dong (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0002-9117-3638)
- Antonio Bonaduce (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0191-1554)
- Zhongshi Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2354-1622)
- Jiping Xie (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8602-2774)
- Mingna Wu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1801-5182)
- Bo Liu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9258-8902)
- Noel Keenlyside (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8708-6868)
- Stefan Sobolowski (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6422-4535)
- Yong Liu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0837-0244)
- Roshin P. Raj (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5863-5269)
Institutions
- Nantong University (CN)
- Peking University (CN)
- Chengdu University of Information Technology (CN)
- Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (NO)
- China University of Geosciences (CN)
- NORCE Research AS (NO)
- University of Bergen (NO)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2025-09-30
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-63727-1
- Citations
- 3
- Primary Topic
- Climate variability and models
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 3.32
Funders
- National Natural Science Foundation of China
- Norges Forskningsråd
- China University of Geosciences