A Review: Communicating Uncertainty within the Global Climate Projections

Abstract Uncertainty is inherent to all sciences and can be studied from several different perspectives. However, best practices for climate scientists communicating uncertainty in climate projections are unclear. As anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the impacts of human activity on the climate system have become more apparent. This makes the communication of uncertainty in the climate projections critical to decision-makers. Further, the public often equates science to certainty. Yet, it is critical to understand that climate projections are not the future and that projections themselves contain several sources of uncertainty. As such, this review makes four primary recommendations to guide future research and considerations when communicating uncertainty. The goal is to provide a central place for climate scientists to have crucial conversations on how to communicate this uncertainty to facilitate decision-making. First, a standardized uncertainty communication framework, specific to climate projections, should be developed and implemented. Second, research is needed to determine how to communicate which climate projections are best representing current reality. This is critical given recent funding uncertainties that could impact the ability to make more certain climate projections. Third, there is a lack of research on how different decision-makers perceive uncertainty, which could point to a need to develop industry-specific uncertainty communication practices when developing a larger, universal uncertainty communication framework. Finally, we recommend investigating whether too much emphasis is placed on the potential impacts of climate change (negative framing of uncertainty) rather than on actions the public can take to reduce the projected warming (positive framing). Significance Statement Communicating uncertainty in the climate projections is crucial to informing and enhancing decision-making processes in sectors that are exceptionally impacted by changes in the climate (e.g., water resource managers, farmers, insurance companies, etc.). Yet, best practices for communicating climate projection uncertainty are not universal and unclear. The goal for this review is to help facilitate critical conversations around the need to standardize climate projection uncertainty communication. This review makes four primary recommendations to guide future research efforts.