A Value-Oriented Analysis of Expert Political Discourse in Kazakhstan: A Spiral Dynamics Approach to Public Social Media Communication

This article aims to provide a systematic analysis of the public discourse of leading Kazakh political experts from the perspective of the theory of spiral dynamics (C. Graves, D. Beck, C. Cowan). In the context of political reforms, growing public mistrust, and institutional transformations, expert discourse serves as a channel for articulating values. The aim of the study is to identify and interpret the dominant and auxiliary value memes based on the analysis of public interviews, articles, speeches, and publications in social networks. Methodologically, it is based on qualitative and quantitative content analysis of more than 670,000 words of direct speech, Kazakh experts Dosym Satpayev, Sanzhar Bokayev, Andrei Chebotarev, and Karlygash Yezhenova. In the course of the study, the data were encoded according to the developed matrix, and the consistency index for Cohen’s Kappa was 0.84, which demonstrates a high level of reliability. In the process of coding, an eight-level model of spiral dynamics was applied, namely beige, purple, red, blue, orange, green, yellow, and turquoise. The analysis also used MAXQDA and Python software tools. The results of the study showed the presence of stable value polyphony in public statements of experts. The most frequently encountered value levels in their discourse were blue, demonstrating institutional order and accountability; orange, showing rationality, efficiency, development, and green, which demonstrates humanism, social justice, and dialogue. Moreover, each expert’s value meme structure varies, forming unique configurations that reflect their analytical styles and cognitive priorities.