Optimization of Pavement Maintenance Planning in Cambodia Using a Probabilistic Model and Genetic Algorithm

Optimizing pavement maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) strategies is essential, especially in developing countries with limited budgets. This study presents an integrated framework combining a deterioration prediction model and a genetic algorithm (GA)-based optimization model to plan cost-effective M&R strategies for flexible pavements, including asphalt concrete (AC) and double bituminous surface treatment (DBST). The GA schedules multi-year interventions by accounting for varied deterioration rates and budget constraints to maximize pavement performance. The optimization process involves generating a population of candidate solutions representing a set of selected road sections for maintenance, followed by fitness evaluation and solution evolution. A mixed Markov hazard (MMH) model is used to model uncertainty in pavement deterioration, simulating condition transitions influenced by pavement bearing capacity, traffic load, and environmental factors. The MMH model employs an exponential hazard function and Bayesian inference via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to estimate deterioration rates and life expectancies. A case study on Cambodia’s road network evaluates six budget scenarios (USD 12–27 million) over a 10-year period, identifying the USD 18 million budget as the most effective. The framework enables road agencies to access maintenance strategies under various financial and performance conditions, supporting data-driven, sustainable infrastructure management and optimal fund allocation.