Assessing the Effectiveness of At-Risk Student Identification Systems at a Historically Disadvantaged University (HDI) in South Africa

Identifying at-risk students is a critical strategy to improve retention and academic success in South African universities. However, despite the widespread adoption of at-risk identification systems, significant challenges remain in their effectiveness and implementation. This study used a desktop research approach to critically assess the strengths and weaknesses of these systems. It explored various identification methodologies, including predictive analytics, academic monitoring tools, and qualitative assessments, highlighting where they succeed and where they fall short. The key weaknesses identified included delayed interventions, data reliability issues, administrative bottlenecks, and a lack of holistic support strategies. The study also examined how these weaknesses impact student outcomes and the effectiveness of institutional support services. Recommendations were made to improve the timeliness, accuracy, and responsiveness of at-risk systems to better support vulnerable students and improve academic performance. This study contributes to scholarship by providing a comprehensive synthesis of current at-risk identification methodologies and systematically identifying practical challenges in their implementation. By highlighting the direct impact of these challenges on student outcomes and institutional support, the research advances understanding of the complexities involved in supporting at-risk students. The actionable recommendations offered serve as a foundation for future research and inform evidence-based reforms aimed at improving student retention and academic success in higher education. Keywords: At-risk Students, South African Universities, Identification Systems, Academic Performance, Support Strategies, Early Intervention.