Risk Assessment of Alien Woody Plants in China’s National Nature Reserves Under Climate Change

Alien woody plants (AWPs) increasingly threaten biodiversity in China's national nature reserves, with climate change expected to intensify these risks. We used species distribution modeling (MaxEnt) and spatial prioritization (Zonation) to assess invasion risk for 251 AWP species across 479 national nature reserves under current and future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). Spatial prioritization revealed current hotspots in southern tropical-subtropical national nature reserves (e.g., Hainan, Fujian, Yunnan provinces), with significant northward and westward expansion projected under warming. A total of 71 species-such as <i>Quercus robur</i>, <i>Salix alba</i>, and <i>Robinia pseudoacacia</i>-pose consistently high risks, while some others (e.g., <i>Ficus benghalensis</i>) may become emerging threats under future conditions. These range shifts are driven by thermal constraint relaxation and longer growing seasons. To mitigate future impacts, we recommend region-specific strategies: containment and seed-source control in southern national nature reserves, and early detection and monitoring in northern and western regions. Our findings provide a spatially explicit framework for climate-informed invasive species management in protected areas.