Mapping human fatalities from megafauna to inform coexistence strategies

Human fatalities from human-wildlife conflict (HWC) represent a critical dimension of conservation, often triggering retaliatory actions and post-traumatic stress in affected communities. However, most studies focus on the economic implications of HWC, neglecting human fatalities which may have far-reaching long-term implications. This study investigates the spatial and temporal patterns of human fatalities caused by megafaunal species in Zimbabwe, using data collected from 2016 to 2022. Through spatial and statistical analyses based on the Getis-Ord Gi* hotspot analysis and Mann-Kendall trend test, we assess fatalities caused by six megafaunal species: Nile crocodile (Crocodylus niloticus), African elephant (Loxodonta africana), hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius), African buffalo (Syncerus caffer), African lion (Panthera leo) and spotted hyena (Crocuta crocuta). The results of the study showed that crocodiles and elephants account for over 80% of human fatalities in Zimbabwe. These fatalities also significantly increased over the study period (p < 0.03). In contrast, fatalities involving lions, hyenas, hippos, and buffaloes showed no significant increase, indicating more stable but still concerning risks. Fatality hotspots were concentrated in Kariba, Binga and Hwange districts in northern and western Zimbabwe, highlighting areas needing urgent interventions. These insights have broader implications for HWC management across Africa, where megafaunal species frequently interact with human populations. By adopting data-driven, species-specific strategies, other countries facing similar conflicts can foster human-wildlife coexistence and improve conservation outcomes.